THE WEALTH OF NATIONS.

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would quickly diminish. More people would apply to them,and the competition would quickly reduce the price of theirlabour. Such talents, though far from being common, are byno means so rare as is imagined. Many people possess themin great perfection, who disdain to make this use of them ;and many more are capable of acquiring them, if any thingcould be made honourably by them.

The over-weening conceit which the greater part of menhave of their own abilities, is an ancient evil remarked bythe philosophers and moralists of all ages. Their absurdpresumption in their own good fortune, has been less takennotice of. It is, however, if possible, still more universal.There is no man living, who, when in tolerable health andspirits, has not some share of it. The chance of gain is byevery man more or less over-valued, and the chance of loss isby most men under-valued, and by scarce any man, who is intolerable health and spirits, valued more than it is worth.

That the chance of gain is naturally over-valued, we maylearn from the universal success of lotteries. The world nei-ther ever saw, nor ever will see, a perfectly fair lottery; orone in which the whole gain compensated the whole loss ;because the undertaker, could make nothing by it. In thestate lotteries the tickets are really not worth the price whichis paid by the original subscribers, and yet commonly sell inthe market for twenty, thirty, and sometimes forty per cent,advance. The vain hopes of gaining some of the great prizesis the sole cause of this demand. The soberest people scarcelook upon it as a folly to pay a small sum for the chance ofgaining ten or twenty thousand pounds ; though they knowthat even that small sum is perhaps twenty or thirty percent,more than the chance is worth. In a lottery in which noprize exceeded twenty pounds, though in other respects it ap-proached much nearer to a perfectly fair one than the com-mon state lotteries, there would not be the same demand fortickets. In order to have a better chance for some of the greatprizes, some people purchase several tickets, and others, smallshares in a still greater number. There is not, however, amore certain proposition in mathematics, than that the moretickets you adventure upon, the more likely you are to be aloser. Adventure upon all the tickets in the lottery, and youlose for certain; and the greater the number of your tickets,the nearer you approach to this certainty.

Thatthechance ofloss is frequently undervalued, andscarce

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